Pre-tourney Rankings
Atlantic 10
2012-13


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
17 Saint Louis 100.0%   4   27 - 6 13 - 3 27 - 6 13 - 3 +13.8      +4.0 70 +9.7 6 64.8 232 +13.7 22 +14.1 1
20 Virginia Commonwealth 99.7%   7   26 - 8 12 - 4 26 - 8 12 - 4 +13.5      +8.2 18 +5.3 43 71.6 84 +11.9 34 +11.7 2
44 Butler 100.0%   6   25 - 8 11 - 5 25 - 8 11 - 5 +10.2      +5.7 49 +4.5 59 63.6 257 +14.1 18 +11.2 3
55 La Salle 41.6%   21 - 9 11 - 5 21 - 9 11 - 5 +8.9      +5.6 51 +3.3 87 68.3 150 +9.4 53 +10.4 5
58 Temple 93.8%   10   23 - 9 11 - 5 23 - 9 11 - 5 +8.3      +6.7 35 +1.7 123 69.5 122 +10.9 41 +10.4 4
67 Dayton 0.0%   17 - 14 7 - 9 17 - 14 7 - 9 +7.5      +6.9 31 +0.5 155 68.0 157 +4.7 101 +3.8 12
75 Saint Joseph's 0.2%   18 - 13 8 - 8 18 - 13 8 - 8 +6.7      +4.5 64 +2.2 114 61.9 285 +6.1 82 +4.5 10
76 Xavier 1.4%   17 - 14 9 - 7 17 - 14 9 - 7 +6.6      +2.1 122 +4.5 61 62.4 279 +6.0 85 +7.2 6
78 Massachusetts 29.5%   21 - 11 9 - 7 21 - 11 9 - 7 +6.1      +4.1 68 +2.0 115 78.5 15 +8.3 58 +6.5 7
82 Richmond 0.0%   18 - 14 8 - 8 18 - 14 8 - 8 +5.7      +5.8 47 0.0 173 62.1 280 +4.9 95 +6.2 8
112 George Washington 0.0%   13 - 17 7 - 9 13 - 17 7 - 9 +3.8      -1.7 218 +5.4 42 71.9 76 +2.0 141 +4.3 11
119 St. Bonaventure 0.0%   14 - 15 7 - 9 14 - 15 7 - 9 +3.2      +4.7 62 -1.5 214 69.1 132 +2.7 126 +3.6 13
130 Charlotte 3.0%   21 - 11 8 - 8 21 - 11 8 - 8 +2.4      -0.9 192 +3.3 89 71.1 94 +7.4 69 +5.8 9
185 Rhode Island 0.0%   8 - 21 3 - 13 8 - 21 3 - 13 -1.0      -1.3 208 +0.4 159 62.0 284 -2.6 208 -3.5 15
240 Duquesne 0.0%   8 - 22 1 - 15 8 - 22 1 - 15 -4.5      -1.4 211 -3.1 258 75.2 36 -3.8 224 -10.6 16
248 Fordham 0.0%   7 - 24 3 - 13 7 - 24 3 - 13 -5.1      -2.1 231 -3.0 257 73.7 52 -3.8 226 -3.1 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th
Saint Louis 1.0 100.0
Virginia Commonwealth 2.0 100.0
Butler 3.0 100.0
La Salle 3.0 100.0
Temple 3.0 100.0
Dayton 11.0 100.0
Saint Joseph's 8.0 100.0
Xavier 6.0 100.0
Massachusetts 6.0 100.0
Richmond 8.0 100.0
George Washington 11.0 100.0
St. Bonaventure 11.0 100.0
Charlotte 8.0 100.0
Rhode Island 14.0 100.0
Duquesne 16.0 100.0
Fordham 14.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Saint Louis 13 - 3 100.0
Virginia Commonwealth 12 - 4 100.0
Butler 11 - 5 100.0
La Salle 11 - 5 100.0
Temple 11 - 5 100.0
Dayton 7 - 9 100.0
Saint Joseph's 8 - 8 100.0
Xavier 9 - 7 100.0
Massachusetts 9 - 7 100.0
Richmond 8 - 8 100.0
George Washington 7 - 9 100.0
St. Bonaventure 7 - 9 100.0
Charlotte 8 - 8 100.0
Rhode Island 3 - 13 100.0
Duquesne 1 - 15 100.0
Fordham 3 - 13 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Saint Louis 100.0% 100.0
Virginia Commonwealth
Butler
La Salle
Temple
Dayton
Saint Joseph's
Xavier
Massachusetts
Richmond
George Washington
St. Bonaventure
Charlotte
Rhode Island
Duquesne
Fordham


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Saint Louis 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 4   0.1 1.0 24.0 50.1 22.9 2.0 0.0
Virginia Commonwealth 99.7% 0.0% 99.7% 7   0.0 0.6 5.8 21.4 43.7 22.2 5.3 0.7 0.0 0.3 99.7%
Butler 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 6   0.1 1.8 23.8 54.9 17.9 1.5 0.0 0.0 100.0%
La Salle 41.6% 0.0% 41.6% 0.0 0.2 1.1 6.8 32.1 1.4 58.4 41.6%
Temple 93.8% 0.0% 93.8% 10   0.1 1.3 13.5 29.7 32.8 14.8 1.7 6.2 93.8%
Dayton 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1 0.0 99.8 0.2%
Xavier 1.4% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0 1.3 0.2 98.6 1.4%
Massachusetts 29.5% 0.0% 29.5% 0.1 2.4 25.8 1.1 70.5 29.5%
Richmond 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
George Washington 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Charlotte 3.0% 0.0% 3.0% 0.0 2.4 0.6 97.0 3.0%
Rhode Island 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Duquesne 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Fordham 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Saint Louis 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 75.4% 42.8% 17.2% 7.0% 2.8% 1.0%
Virginia Commonwealth 99.7% 0.0% 99.7% 59.3% 23.5% 10.7% 4.1% 1.5% 0.6%
Butler 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 49.3% 17.0% 5.4% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1%
La Salle 41.6% 34.0% 23.8% 8.2% 2.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Temple 93.8% 1.6% 93.0% 31.3% 7.0% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Dayton 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Xavier 1.4% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Massachusetts 29.5% 27.0% 12.3% 3.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Richmond 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Washington 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charlotte 3.0% 2.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rhode Island 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Duquesne 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fordham 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 4.7 0.0 1.9 39.1 47.3 11.4 0.4 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 4.3 0.0 4.3 63.4 30.1 2.2
2nd Round 97.2% 2.3 2.8 17.9 38.7 31.6 8.5 0.5 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 68.2% 0.9 31.8 45.7 19.4 3.0 0.1 0.0
Elite Eight 32.4% 0.4 67.6 28.8 3.5 0.1
Final Four 12.9% 0.1 87.1 12.5 0.4
Final Game 4.8% 0.0 95.2 4.7 0.1
Champion 1.6% 0.0 98.4 1.6